CallMarket
The busiest non-sports questions on Kalshi, against Polymarket US and the global book. v0.1
Snapshot taken 2026-10-28T15:49 UTC — 0.0h old. These are not live prices. The board is fetched on a schedule and this page is a view of that fetch, so treat every number as of the timestamp above and check the venue before acting. Polymarket US publishes no volume figures at all, so it cannot be ranked by activity — only by how much of its book is quoted. The global book is shown for reference and is not tradeable by US users.
2028 Democratic presidential nominee
kalshi KXPRESNOMD-28 · Elections · 24h volume 248,750,576 · 52 outcomes · settles 2028-11-07
Settles on (the rule for one outcome, Hunter Biden — every other outcome reads the same way): If Hunter Biden wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Global |
|---|
| Gavin Newsom | 0.15 / 0.16 | 0.17 / 0.18 | - |
| Jon Ossoff | 0.15 / 0.16 | 0.15 / 0.16 | - |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 0.13 / 0.14 | 0.13 / 0.14 | - |
| Kamala Harris | 0.06 / 0.06 | 0.06 / 0.07 | - |
| Josh Shapiro | 0.05 / 0.05 | 0.04 / 0.05 | - |
- The spread is a toll. The leaders quote 0.1c wide at the tightest, paid entering and again leaving. The outcome has to move more than that in your favour before you are even.
- Long dated. Settles 2028-11-07. Buying early ties money up for years for a few cents of carry — wait unless you hold a view the market has not priced.
- Not comparable name by name. The venues list different numbers of outcomes (52 vs 17). The shorter field absorbs the probability of everyone it omits, so every name on it prices dearer for a reason that is not a mispricing.
- Global carries this question too — reference only, mids with no book, not tradeable by US users. Sanity-check a price with it, never compute a gap from it.
2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
kalshi KXPRESPERSON-28 · Elections · 24h volume 77,501,593 · 34 outcomes · settles 2029-11-07
Settles on (the rule for one outcome, Gavin Newsom — every other outcome reads the same way): If Gavin Newsom is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Global |
|---|
| J.D. Vance | 0.19 / 0.20 | no quote | - |
| Gavin Newsom | 0.11 / 0.12 | 0.12 / 0.13 | - |
| Marco Rubio | 0.10 / 0.11 | 0.12 / 0.13 | - |
| Jon Ossoff | 0.10 / 0.10 | 0.11 / 0.12 | - |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 0.08 / 0.08 | 0.09 / 0.10 | - |
- The spread is a toll. The leaders quote 0.1c wide at the tightest, paid entering and again leaving. The outcome has to move more than that in your favour before you are even.
- Long dated. Settles 2029-11-07. Buying early ties money up for years for a few cents of carry — wait unless you hold a view the market has not priced.
- Venue call, not a trade. The whole field is cheaper on Kalshi: outcomes sum to 1.02 against 1.23 on the other book. That is vig across every outcome at once, not an edge on any one of them.
- Global carries this question too — reference only, mids with no book, not tradeable by US users. Sanity-check a price with it, never compute a gap from it.
Which party will win the U.S. House?
kalshi CONTROLH-2026 · Elections · 24h volume 76,365,719 · 2 outcomes · settles 2027-02-01
Settles on: If the Democratic Party has won control of the House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Global |
|---|
| Democratic Party | 0.91 / 0.91 | not listed | - |
| Republican Party | 0.09 / 0.09 | not listed | - |
- The spread is a toll. The leaders quote 0.1c wide at the tightest, paid entering and again leaving. The outcome has to move more than that in your favour before you are even.
- Long dated. Settles 2027-02-01. Buying early ties money up for years for a few cents of carry — wait unless you hold a view the market has not priced.
- Kalshi only. No comparable event on Polymarket US, so there is no second price to shop.
- Global carries this question too — reference only, mids with no book, not tradeable by US users. Sanity-check a price with it, never compute a gap from it.
2028 Republican presidential nominee
kalshi KXPRESNOMR-28 · Elections · 24h volume 71,886,845 · 45 outcomes · settles 2028-11-07
Settles on (the rule for one outcome, Thomas Massie — every other outcome reads the same way): If Thomas Massie wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Global |
|---|
| J.D. Vance | 0.38 / 0.39 | no quote | - |
| Marco Rubio | 0.17 / 0.18 | 0.18 / 0.19 | - |
| Ron DeSantis | 0.05 / 0.05 | 0.04 / 0.05 | - |
| Donald J. Trump Jr. | 0.03 / 0.03 | no quote | - |
| Tucker Carlson | 0.03 / 0.03 | 0.02 / 0.03 | - |
- The spread is a toll. The leaders quote 0.1c wide at the tightest, paid entering and again leaving. The outcome has to move more than that in your favour before you are even.
- Long dated. Settles 2028-11-07. Buying early ties money up for years for a few cents of carry — wait unless you hold a view the market has not priced.
- Venue call, not a trade. The whole field is cheaper on Polymarket US: outcomes sum to 0.87 against 0.99 on the other book. That is vig across every outcome at once, not an edge on any one of them.
- Global carries this question too — reference only, mids with no book, not tradeable by US users. Sanity-check a price with it, never compute a gap from it.
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
kalshi KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB · Elections · 24h volume 60,992,184 · 4 outcomes · settles 2027-02-01
Settles on (the rule for one outcome, Democrats sweep — every other outcome reads the same way): If ALL of the following occur: House Control: Democratic, Senate Control: Democratic, then the market resolves to Yes. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single compone
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Global |
|---|
| Democrats sweep | 0.62 / 0.63 | 0.63 / 0.64 | - |
| D-House, R-Senate | 0.28 / 0.29 | 0.28 / 0.29 | - |
| Republicans sweep | 0.09 / 0.09 | 0.09 / 0.10 | - |
| R-House, D-Senate | 0.01 / 0.01 | 0.01 / 0.02 | - |
- The spread is a toll. The leaders quote 0.1c wide at the tightest, paid entering and again leaving. The outcome has to move more than that in your favour before you are even.
- Long dated. Settles 2027-02-01. Buying early ties money up for years for a few cents of carry — wait unless you hold a view the market has not priced.
- The two books agree closely on the outcomes both list. Trade wherever your money already is.
- Global carries this question too — reference only, mids with no book, not tradeable by US users. Sanity-check a price with it, never compute a gap from it.
Texas Senate winner?
kalshi SENATETX-26 · Elections · 24h volume 46,231,041 · 2 outcomes · settles 2027-11-03
Settles on: If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Texas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Global |
|---|
| James Talarico | 0.65 / 0.66 | 0.65 / 0.66 | - |
| Ken Paxton | 0.34 / 0.35 | 0.34 / 0.35 | - |
- The spread is a toll. The leaders quote 1.0c wide at the tightest, paid entering and again leaving. The outcome has to move more than that in your favour before you are even.
- Long dated. Settles 2027-11-03. Buying early ties money up for years for a few cents of carry — wait unless you hold a view the market has not priced.
- The two books agree closely on the outcomes both list. Trade wherever your money already is.
- Global carries this question too — reference only, mids with no book, not tradeable by US users. Sanity-check a price with it, never compute a gap from it.
Los Angeles Mayor winner?
kalshi KXMAYORLA-26 · Elections · 24h volume 44,638,054 · 2 outcomes · settles 2027-06-02
Settles on: If Karen Bass wins the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election, then the market resolves to Yes.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Global |
|---|
| Karen Bass | 0.54 / 0.55 | not listed | - |
| Nithya Raman | 0.45 / 0.46 | not listed | - |
- The spread is a toll. The leaders quote 1.0c wide at the tightest, paid entering and again leaving. The outcome has to move more than that in your favour before you are even.
- Long dated. Settles 2027-06-02. Buying early ties money up for years for a few cents of carry — wait unless you hold a view the market has not priced.
- Kalshi only. No comparable event on Polymarket US, so there is no second price to shop.
Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
kalshi KXBTCY-27JAN0100 · Crypto · 24h volume 44,231,863 · 28 outcomes · settles 2027-01-01
Settles on (the rule for one outcome, 19,999.99 or below — every other outcome reads the same way): If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12 AM EST is below 20000.00 at 12 AM EST on Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like G
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Global |
|---|
| 75,000 to 79,999.99 | 0.15 / 0.16 | 0.14 / 0.15 | - |
| 80,000 to 84,999.99 | 0.15 / 0.15 | 0.20 / 0.26 | - |
| 85,000 to 89,999.99 | 0.12 / 0.12 | 0.13 / 0.14 | - |
| 70,000 to 74,999.99 | 0.10 / 0.10 | 0.10 / 0.12 | - |
| 90,000 to 94,999.99 | 0.09 / 0.09 | 0.08 / 0.10 | - |
- The spread is a toll. The leaders quote 0.1c wide at the tightest, paid entering and again leaving. The outcome has to move more than that in your favour before you are even.
- Long dated. Settles 2027-01-01. Buying early ties money up for years for a few cents of carry — wait unless you hold a view the market has not priced.
- Venue call, not a trade. The whole field is cheaper on Kalshi: outcomes sum to 1.03 against 1.35 on the other book. That is vig across every outcome at once, not an edge on any one of them.
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
kalshi KXALIENS-27 · Science and Technology · 24h volume 37,472,754 · 7 outcomes · settles 2026-09-01
Settles on (the rule for one outcome, Before September — every other outcome reads the same way): If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. For purp
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Global |
|---|
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 0.23 / 0.24 | not listed | - |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 0.14 / 0.15 | not listed | - |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 0.05 / 0.05 | not listed | - |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 0.03 / 0.04 | not listed | - |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 0.00 / 0.02 | not listed | - |
- The spread is a toll. The leaders quote 0.1c wide at the tightest, paid entering and again leaving. The outcome has to move more than that in your favour before you are even.
- Kalshi only. No comparable event on Polymarket US, so there is no second price to shop.
- Global carries this question too — reference only, mids with no book, not tradeable by US users. Sanity-check a price with it, never compute a gap from it.
More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
kalshi KXLAYOFFSYINFO-26 · Economics · 24h volume 31,501,604 · 1 outcomes · settles 2027-03-01
Settles on: If there are more than 447,000 layoffs in the information sector in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Important information: This market was listed using an incorrect underlying value for tech layoffs in 2025. The correct floor strike
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Global |
|---|
| Yes | 0.94 / 0.94 | not listed | - |
- The spread is a toll. The leaders quote 0.2c wide at the tightest, paid entering and again leaving. The outcome has to move more than that in your favour before you are even.
- Long dated. Settles 2027-03-01. Buying early ties money up for years for a few cents of carry — wait unless you hold a view the market has not priced.
- Kalshi only. No comparable event on Polymarket US, so there is no second price to shop.
Will the Citrini scenario happen?
kalshi KXCITRINI-28JUL01 · Elections · 24h volume 25,948,294 · 1 outcomes · settles 2028-07-01
Settles on: If at least 3 of: unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS) S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Global |
|---|
| Yes | 0.19 / 0.21 | not listed | - |
- The spread is a toll. The leaders quote 2.0c wide at the tightest, paid entering and again leaving. The outcome has to move more than that in your favour before you are even.
- Long dated. Settles 2028-07-01. Buying early ties money up for years for a few cents of carry — wait unless you hold a view the market has not priced.
- Kalshi only. No comparable event on Polymarket US, so there is no second price to shop.
California Governor winner? (Person)
kalshi KXGOVCA-26 · Elections · 24h volume 23,227,898 · 2 outcomes · settles 2027-11-03
Settles on: If Xavier Becerra is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Global |
|---|
| Xavier Becerra | 0.96 / 0.96 | 0.95 / 0.96 | - |
| Steve Hilton | 0.04 / 0.04 | 0.03 / 0.04 | - |
- The spread is a toll. The leaders quote 0.1c wide at the tightest, paid entering and again leaving. The outcome has to move more than that in your favour before you are even.
- Long dated. Settles 2027-11-03. Buying early ties money up for years for a few cents of carry — wait unless you hold a view the market has not priced.
- The two books agree closely on the outcomes both list. Trade wherever your money already is.
- Global carries this question too — reference only, mids with no book, not tradeable by US users. Sanity-check a price with it, never compute a gap from it.
Nothing here is a recommendation to trade. Every figure is the venue's own quoted bid and ask at the snapshot time; where a market is one-sided the page says "no quote" rather than showing a midpoint, because a price with no bid behind it is an offer and not a market.